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Thoughts on Teh Tablet

2010-01-03T05:21:00Z

Everyone's talking about it. The Apple Tablet, iSlate, or whatever you want to call it. I've been waiting *years* to see it, to touch it, to hold, and to love it. And to feed Apple with yet a few more of my hard-earned dollars. Since it might just be coming soon, I wanted to record some of my expectations, hopes, and thoughts about this much talked-about fable of a computing device.

Expectations

Let's face it. Apple is all about touchable computing these days. If I had to choose a single feature that defined the iPhone and iPod Touch, it would be just that- touch. It is a device that begs to interact with the user. It's also simply a joy to use.

I expect that the Apple Tablet has been postponed largely because the technology to make the tablet as game-changing as the iPhone simply didn't exist. The iPhone has set the stage and now is the ideal time to start shaping the rest of the computing world to the paradigm of touch.

Short story? The iSlate, Apple Tablet, or whatever name it launches with will be *more* touchable than the iPhone, more intuitive to use than any device we've seen to-date. How?

Revamping or fork of the core OS X (or the iPhone's fork)
Multitouch for *everything*. Keyboard will truly be secondary. The concept of a mouse won't even enter the user's mind... unless they launch an application requiring it

Extending this concept, the desktop will be revamped. I'm not sure if it will become more iPhone-esque or be a different, more radical departure from the traditional desktop, but it will *not* be your run-of-the-mill desktop environment

I take it that you've all seen Avatar? I'm not sure if any of you were paying attention to the props, but if you were, you would notice:

There was an astonishing degree of consistency across the hypothetical devices used throughout the movie.
All of these devices were, you guessed it, *touchable*. Sure, they were transparent and all that, but discard that (there's a ton of privacy issues and technology barriers to cross to accomplish this).
Think of Minority Report. Think of any Science Fiction movie you've seen over the past 15 years. There are two common motifs for futuristic interfaces: touchability and voice interaction.

Clearly, it will be touch-based. And the OS itself will promote- nay, require- the user to interact with their fingers. What about the rest? What kind of technology will we see to promote this ultra-touchable interface?

OK, first things first: cell network support. I doubt Apple would try and pawn off a device without Wifi, but it's possible they go the Kindle route and preclude anything but cell data support. US partner? AT&T. Sadly.

Size: I expect 10-12" diagonal, approximating paper size. All screen- perhaps a half-inch bezel surrounding the screen. Brushed aluminum. The back will be solid brushed aluminum. I expect (well, hope) that it will be less than (or equal to) a half-inch thick, no more. It'll be extremely light, borrow from the lessons learned designing the Air. No physical keyboard whatsoever.

As for raw computing power... I certainly expect more than your run-of-the-mill netbook. So a legitimate x86/x64 processor (not Atom) and at least 1GB of some decent ram. It's going to be *hard* to fit all of this, plus an OpenGL-capable and performant graphics accelerator into the profile listed above. But it must be done.

I hope and expect that it will NOT have an integrated camera. That would be ludicrous. But it *will*, of course, have an iSight webcam. And this stems a whole new series of expectations.

I think there's some potential to support gestures that are *seen* and not felt- meaning that the iSight will be on most of the time, looking at your face. I have this vision of people walking around in Airports and seated on Buses, holding a thin, 8x10" device in front of their faces talking to it. It will redefine iChat (this is yet another reason why cell data network is so critical)

I'm not sure if Apple will actually take the same route as Project Natal- it's very, very difficult to accurately interpret gestures when the only device to interpret them is a webcam. Touch is a different story... and it is just about as (if not more) natural than either expressions or even voice. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see a hand wave or head nod as supported gestures (under more strictly controlled circumstances...).

One last expectation- one that is slightly less tangible: Apple will clearly redefine the way we interpret a "Tablet PC"- largely based on how we interact with it, but I don't think it will stop there. Apple has seen tremendous success with the iPhone-based App store and it's hard to imagine Apple overlooking the business opportunities of the same in a new class of device. So here's the kicker: to really promote an actual App store, the Apple Tablet device needs to:

Need new applications. This doesn't preclude running existing Mac-based software, but it does mean that a whole new set of APIs would be released- APIs that are specific to the device, to its touch support, to its gesture and other interfaces (whatever they might be).
Set a limit on the price of the device itself. Yes, I'm serious. It has to be low enough to encourage adoption. It also has to be *small* enough to encourage mass adoption.
It has to be powerful enough to replace at least your netbook. Let's face it, netbooks are a bit of a joke. They're toy laptops whose niche really is centered around two core criteria: price and portability. Problem: no netbook I've ever seen has a long enough battery life for me to consider it more portable than my laptop. Problem: no netbook I've ever seen is small enough for me to consider truly carriable. And the screens suck. So do the keyboards. Short story: Apple's tablet could *wipe the planet* of netbooks. If the processor, power, and profile are right.

The above is what I expect: a genre-breaking, paradigm-shifting device that will redefine the way we work with computers. I don't think it will be considered an intermediate step between an iPhone and a MacBook Pro, but a different *class* of computing device that parallels the MacBook and, in some sense, competes with it. I expect it to redefine the MacBook line entirely, shaping the MacBook's future by the tablet's own innovations.

Hopes

I hope for more than I expect, clearly. I want some things from the Apple tablet that I don't really know that I can expect. At the forefront is backward compatibility in an elegant way. I've adapted to the lack of a physical keyboard on my iPhone quite admirably. Since there will be no physical keyboard to the device, I'm steeling myself to learn how to type on something more LCARS-like. I *want* there to be some sort of compatibility with my existing software and suite of tools... because I *want* a device that can do it all that I can also take with me wherever I go.

I also *want* a battery life that gives me more than I've been bred to expect. I would even accept a built-in battery (which I fully expect anyway) as long as it delivers 8 hours+ of life. I would hope it would be enough for an oversees flight (10+ hours), but that's probably too much to ask, thinking realistically. I hope 8 hours is manageable.

I REALLY hope that the device won't break the bank. This is Apple, unfortunately, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Air-style pricing. But I hope for better. There is some justification for an expectation (see arguments above), but given Apple's track record, it's more of a hope than a legitimate expectation.

I hope it doesn't launch with AT&T. Under the best of circumstances, it would launch completely unlocked. Second best would be Verizon. Dead last on the preference list: AT&T. Actually, take those lying, incompetent, and callous bullheads off the list entirely. Of course I would entertain a purchase, regardless of the provider, but I want desperately to sever ties with AT&T.

It'd also be nice to not pay much month-to-month for the new device... but I'm pretty positive I'm going to get screwed. :(

I have more hopes, but I'll leave the currently documented ones as they stand.

Thoughts

Game changer. Future of computing. Well, of course. Clearly, that's the angle. It will be *big*. I will redefine how we work with computers entirely. It will (yet again) put Microsoft in the position of saying, "Oh crap. What're we going to do now?" So long now, Microsoft (and Apple, to some extent) has held us captive under by holding the OS world static, restricting the hardware options, clinging to legacy APIs and concepts, and clutching to decades-old methods of human/computer interaction. It's long past time to turn that on its head.

Even if none of my hopes and even some of my expectations aren't met, I'm sure the tablet device will be compelling enough to warrant a purchase. Here's to having our expectations met and hopes fulfilled without savaging our wallets in the process. Apple: treat us well. Please.

Monopoly City Streets- Take 2

2009-09-18T12:25:00Z

The game is up again! The game was reset yesterday- well, more than reset. A few of the rules have slightly changed, as have a few UI elements. In particular, property prices are no longer capped- and the returns yielded by constructed property are no longer capped.

That's right. It's a rather significant change and will very much change the way the game is played. How so? Well, here are my two cents:

Some properties are out of reach for new players. Longer streets now cost substantially more than the $3 million.
Since your property constructions can now yield *more* than you originally invested in a single day's rent, the game will move a little quicker, putting more money into the game more quickly
Because of the above two, the game is more heavily skewed toward early adopters. People that play today will be able to buy more expensive and less available properties before late starters.

Short story? The leaderboard, once established, is very unlikely to change for anything outside of Chance. And in the case of Chance, attacked leaders will rapidly be superseded by early-adopting players waiting in the wings. So get over there, get started, buy, buy, buy!

I would invite anyone with some time and perhaps a little extra money to figure out the ratio at which returns are yielded for more expensive streets- at this point, I've only been able to afford a single street :)

Monopoly City Streets

2009-09-11T21:08:00Z

Updated: 9/17/09

Today I've actually started to enjoy playing the game Monopoly City Streets, an online version of monopoly taking advantage of Google Maps to make the entire world the game's board. As early as this morning, there was still a tremendous amount of latency as I logged in and tried to expand my empire. But it seems that most of this is (hopefully) behind us now- the servers are up, the game is extremely responsive, and it's significantly changed the experience of game play.

For the uninitiated, the game launched just a couple of days ago and has been absolutely swamped ever since. The game's blog has documented some of the difficulties and the load- about 1.7 million unique visitors every day. I honestly expected a bit more, but I completely understand the difficulties in scaling- 1.7 million *unique visitors* is a tremendous load on any server infrastructure, especially when each user is responsible for hundreds if not thousands of requests against the servers. Well, it's nice to see it running as intended. Finally.

I have to admit, the technical aspects of this game intrigue me. What a interesting way to tie Google Maps into a game! I haven't had the time to dig into the OpenStreetMaps API yet, but this game inspires me to do so.

The use of OpenStreetMaps isn't the only thing i find interesting- the logic behind the game is equally thought-provoking, at times. Since this logic isn't documented anywhere, I spent the first couple of days hypothesizing and testing to find out some of those fundamentals- they form the foundation for any sort of strategy. And I still have some unanswered questions about that logic, though I think I've got the basics down. For posterity's sake, let me review (comments are welcome and encouraged):

Game Objective(s)

There's really only a single objective, as far as I can tell: you win by making money. Your score is a representation of your net worth, which consists of the value of your property and the money you have in the bank. That's it.

Property Values and Rent

So one of the first things I noticed is that each street that can be purchased is valued at $1m or less. I'm having to make some unproven guesses here (watch out!), but it looks like the following properties apply to streets:

Without any construction, rent is always 10% of the purchase value of the street, rounded *down*. So a street valued at $114,000 will carry a rent of $11,000 per day. A street valued at $990,000 will rent at $99,000 per day. So if you don't plan on developing (which would be stupid... see below), buy round numbers to make a better margin.
Development of houses (or any other type of construction) impacts the rent returned by the street. For example, the most basic house carries a cost of $50,000. Adding this basic house to a street valued at $100,000 (yielding a rent of $10,000 per day) will add $5,000 to the daily rent of the street.
If you've played the game at all, you'll notice that the amount of rent added to the street per house appears to be somewhat subjective. It's not subjective- it's relative. To the value of the street. In fact, as the value of the street increases, the yield of the developed real estate increases as well. Here's what I mean: if you build a house on a street valued at $1m (as opposed to the $100,000 example above), the house, still costing $50,000, will add another full $50,000 to the daily rent of the street. It's all about location!
Density (how many developed properties a street will support) is relative to its size; the spacing is always fixed. See the Housing section for more information about density.
Undeveloped streets are particularly prone to Hazards (see below for an explanation of Hazards). If there is enough undeveloped space, prisons, factories, or other Bad Things (tm) can be built on them- and this will make their rent yield drop to ZERO (d'oh!).

I originally had thought that I, the player, would be paying out rent to other players somehow. Just know that rent is fixed, daily, and paid by the bank changes how the game is played. The entire focus of the game is property- obtaining, developing, and protecting. Player interacting is very limited- either to screwing somebody else or making offers. It's only day 3... I suppose there might be some potential for allies to develop, but there isn't an in-game, inter-player communications mechanism yet (the docs mention a "Friends' League", but I haven't figured that out yet), so that would be challenging. If someone wanted to spend a little time on a side project, an allies and alliances site would be a great companion. Of course, there would be some problems with username claims...

Housing and Development

There are a number of residential and business buildings that can be built on a street. The key variants (outside of their look and name) are:

Purchase price: starting at $50,000 and going all the way up to $100m.
Rent yielded per day: starting at $5,000 (the cheapest house on the cheapest street).
Space used on the street. Varies wildly, but generally, they don't take up very much.

Not all houses yield the same rent-to-price ratio. The smallest houses (the $50k and $75k models) yield the best return on nearly all streets- usually between 40% of the purchase price in daily rent all the way up to a full 100%. This is balanced by density- by which I mean if you fill a street full of $50k models, you'll have a great daily return on the money you invested (100%, potentially), but the street will not yield its full potential. If you put some bigger ticket items on the street, you can increase the streets monetary yield substantially- but you will take a hit on your percent of return. You'll have to figure out when it's best to make high-yield streets- that'll be a key part of your strategy

I should also note that I've seen a chance card that allows me to demolish a building on another player's street- and I've had someone try and use that against me. It doesn't always seem to work (sometimes you apparently win the case in court), but you should be aware that nothing in life is certain- except death.

Location

Above, I wrote the words, "It's all about location!". Well, that's only partly true. I was concerned that there would be some prime real estate sucked up in the first minutes of the game that would seriously impact the fairness of the game moving forward. I had made the assumption that some real estate would be inherently more valuable than others- like city scapes and historical landmarks. So my first thought was to go attack the major cities and grab some prime real estate before it was all gone. That assumption proved to be flawed.

The logic behind the game is evenly applied throughout- so what is written above about Streets and Housing applies equally, regardless of the actual location. So streets will be the same price, based on their length, no matter where you go.

This isn't to say that property in cities might be more valuable- there are market considerations as well. Think supply and demand! Seattle, WA, for example, has a fair amount of property already taken by players. And not by a single player- by many different players. They are going to find expansion challenging, so they'll have to turn to buying already-owned properties. Since there are so many players and little room to grow, demand will outstrip supply and prices will rise. I would guess that they won't rise by much early on, since there won't be a great deal of disparity between the rent earnings of each player, but that will eventually change and that real estate will sell at a premium.

So the answer to the question: "Does location really matter?" is: Yes. And no. Choosing a spot where no one is going to bother you or encroach on your development will help early on, but (as with actual real estate) the prices of your development will not increase as much over time, as there will be far less demand. Consider that in your strategy!

Hazards and Bonuses

Disclaimer: I haven't apparently gotten into the game far enough to receive an actual Bonus, but I think I've figured out how they work.

Hazards and Bonuses are types of development that directly impact the rent yield (and potential resale value) of a street. Hazards generally stop the street from yielding rent *AT ALL*- meaning the player gets absolutely nothing from the street on a daily basis, though the value of the street is still included in their net worth. Bonuses protect streets from hazards, making it impossible for other players to sabotage it. There are also Bulldozers- which I mentioned earlier- which allows a player to demolish a development (including bonuses) on an opponent's street.

Hazards (in case you don't feel like clicking the "Gaming Rules" button in the game):

Power Plant
Prisons
Sewage Works

Bonuses

Stadium
Park
School (there's a typo in the documentation that excludes this)

You can tie it all together to formulate your strategy moving forward- just remember that your streets aren't safe from another player's evil intentions. I can't say exactly when these chance cards are offered- it appears to be either random, or random and weighted by either development or cash earnings.

Scoring

... is a bit of an enigma to me when I look at the leader board. As the rules go, your score is just your net worth. However, the leading players (currently there is one sitting at a score in excess of $240m) don't seem to have the same scoring applied to them. This may be indicative of a bug in the naming system (something they've admitted to recently), but clicking through on that top player shows the scorecard of an entry-level player who owns just 3 streets and whose net worth is $3m. Huh?

Other Notes and Thoughts

As I was writing the above, I clicked through on the "Leader Board" and attempted to access the "Friends" section, which I've been employing as a watch list (spying). Everything else in the game still works, but this section is down. Perhaps the "Friends' League" is coming??

A more important note: the docs say that "...rent is calculated automatically - so you can focus on being a property genius rather than a math professor." It's a bit of a lie and you should be aware of that. Keep the calculator handy. Manage your investments carefully- and think of them as just that, investments. You'll get a return and, in a strange turn of fate, you will control exactly how much your investments actually return. There's a reason why the "Chance" cards are called such- it really is the only element of randomness (or luck) in the game. Everything else is pre-calculated with cold precision.

On unfortunate byproduct of the above is that the game heavily favors people who find themselves in either (or both) of two categories:

Early birds. People who managed to get online and in the game in the seconds that it was actually available when the game started. The advantage is that they received an extra $1m and rent for their properties for each day they were online earlier than everyone else. I think this is the single driving reason behind the consideration mentioned on the game blog for resetting the entire game after the scaling concerns are eliminated.
Active players. Plan to login for a 10 minutes *every day*. It's absolutely critical- and they tell you so in the docs. Money will continue to accrue in your account, but not as quickly as it would if you were to be actively investing it. Remember that- if you have money left in the bank after you've finished playing for a day, you're leaving a ton of future returns on the table.

Hints and Tricks

After you've read the above, you'll be much better prepared to enter the game than I was. But then again, I knew there would be a learning curve- and exploring accounted for the first couple of days of game play. Because I'm a nice guy, I'll give you some points on strategy that you might not otherwise pick up right away (I didn't):

Avoid other players as you get started. Stay under the radar for a few days, if possible. Don't piss anyone off. The last thing you want is to attract the attention of someone with some real cash (think what $20m could do to your development!)
Given the above, find a spot that is likely to be untouched for a while. Once you build your portfolio of real estate (and your available capital) a bit, you'll want to diversify and go after some better real estate. If you start in a more contested space, you might get lucky and just make it big, but that's a risk you'll have to weigh independently.
Keep a calculator handy, like I said before. Early in the game (for the first few days), you won't have a lot of money to throw at things. Maximize your returns early on- take advantage of the cheaper houses that offer a better value over time (the $50k and $75k models).
Again, let your available capital dictate what kinds of streets you purchase. Buying 3 $1m streets on your first day will only give you $300k in rent tomorrow. Buying a single $1m street and filling it as full as possible with high-yield developments will give you vastly more to work with next time you log in.
Fill up streets as much as possible. It maximizes the street's yield and it also limits room for hazard construction.
Use your bonuses, if you get them, on your best streets.
Update your strategy as your resources (capital and real estate) change. I've mentioned a few keys here that will help you get started, but they won't serve you well when you're rolling in the dough. Be flexible and adjust to the environment you find yourself in.
Remember that the smartest players are going to be watching you. You've probably got a much later start than most, so you're already at a disadvantage. Be aware that being small doesn't mean there isn't a bulls-eye on your back.

Before you sharpen your claws and jump in expecting to own the world in 10 days flat, remember this: I offer no guarantees as to the accuracy of the above information, nor do I offer any warranty that it will do you any good. I see it as common sense, nothing more. Chance and luck will play their part. Your brains will play a bigger part. Good luck!

Other resources

The community-driven sites have been growing and this is not the only helpful site around. Donovan (see comments below) has given us an awesome property and real estate value analysis here.

"Not Giving Away" has also given some key pointers in the comments. I quote: "A couple of tips to add to Tom's useful ones though: the smallest properties can be squeezed into more space than others, so the returns would appear higher on these. And if you don't get a bonus build, spread your cottages between the cones: the space is too small for anyone to sabotage with Bad Things, so if you can fill a street by only half filling, still protected. When you have spare money, find your premium streets, and you'll have space to double your investments too, if you're lucky."

As I mentioned, there a number of community sites, most of which are still in their infancy. Check the official blog site, specifically blog comments, for links users have posted. Here are a couple I've found useful:

http://monopo.ly/- great forum site for Monopoly City Streets!
MyMonopolyCityStreets wiki
Monopoly City Streets Secrets (a little light on the info, but what's there is good)

Let me know if you find any more useful sights. There's a link in the comments for a clans site, but it doesn't appear to be up yet. Hopefully, that will change in the next few hours. The associated blog site is up and has a very useful greasemonkey script. Well done!

Hacks and Other Evils

I'm not a proponent of gaming the system, but I am extremely curious about the technologies used and some ways we could take advantage of them. The game is built on flash, making a number of calls back to the server as the game is played. Obviously, there are the ties with OpenStreetMaps, but there's also the overlay of owned roads and developments that are part of the game's core infrastructure. The leader boards, bank, alerts, and profiles are all part of that infrastructure. If a person cared to reverse-engineer these things, a number of possibilities would open up:

The allies/alliances application I suggested above
Email alerts- when your bank balance changes or alerts are received, among other things. Eventually, I do expect seconds to matter in this game- notifications would go a long way.
Publicly-accessible leader boards. No login required.

And you thought I had something more nefarious in mind? Sorry, I don't play that way. If I do well, I want to do so on my own merit, not by some subversive hacking. The above would be great additions to the core of the game. I actually expect that a public leader board will be published some time soon. Here's to hoping.

*EDIT*: there is a very basic alliances site up here, though it is *extremely* basic. Perhaps it'll see some added TLC over the next couple of days. Regardless, nice work on implementing a very, very powerful option for the game. I don't know if this post was the source, but if not, birds of a feather, eh?

Comments are more than welcome. I haven't seen any other guides, faqs, or introductions to game play out there. Let's get one started!

Records and Personal Bests

2009-07-17T16:35:00Z

I bike. I love it. I run too (to be honest, I love running a hair more than biking, but my knees disagree). I love hiking, rock and ice climbing, mountaineering in general, a few select water sports, and a few select snow sports, among many, many other things. But I *love* biking. I love biking fast. Super fast, if I can manage it. The point? Well, I broke a couple of personal records over the past week and I thought I would brag share:

New Personal Bests (beat 'em if you can...)

Top Speed

Tuesday of last week, I decided to take a spin through Salt Lake, turn south, take Traverse Mountain to drop into Highland, and head home from there. I've done the loop before- 35 miles (perfect distance for a day ride)- it's a slow and brutal ascent up the north side of Traverse Mountain, but an exceptionally fast descent down the south side.

I started the ride at around 2:30PM in the afternoon and headed north down Redwood Road toward Salt Lake. There was a wonderful wind heading out of the south, giving me an appreciated boost in speed... at least until I turned around. I got into Salt Lake right around 3:00PM- at the peak of the day's heat. Due in large part to the tail wind, I was still feeling strong as I pulled up to a stoplight next to a van. I had my earphones on, listening to some music (Linkin Park is what I like to ride to, in case you were wondering). It took the driver of the van a few tries to get my attention :). When he finally did and I finally pulled my earphones out, he shouted:

"Do you know how hot it is?! It's 101 degrees out here! You're a nutcase!!"

We had a pleasant conversation while the light stayed red. As soon as it changed, I continued up the hill toward Traverse Mountain. The ascent was, as always, brutal. I managed to make it up the top, difficult though it was. The other side is the fun side. Prior to last Tuesday, my all-time top speed was 55 MPH, which i hit the year before descending Traverse Mountain. This time, with a new bike and a little more guts:

56.5 MPH

Oh yeah, that was awesome. One of those times you look down at the road and realize that your helmet won't help you much at those speeds.

The Work Run

I bike to work as frequently as I can. This week has been a bit frustrating on the biking side due to work constraints- today was the first day I managed to get out and ride. It's a 12.1 mile route (one way) and usually takes me 34 minutes (average speed is right around 21.5 MPH). Today, I happened to be very late for a morning meeting and, with that added incentive, I blew right by that to land a new personal best:

30 minutes and 53 seconds- 23.3 MPH average

I guess I should be late for meetings more often!

Network Outages

2009-01-04T01:18:00Z

For those of you wondering what happened today (3 Jan 2009) when you tried to access this site (or send me an email, ping me on IM, or anything else network related...), here's your explanation:

Due to some much needed rehauling of both network infrastructure and firewall policies, our network went down for some 6 hours. And yes, I had to work on the thing during the entire 6 hours. But, while there is no such thing as absolute security, ours is substantially better now than it was.

So. My apologies for the problems, please come back and visit soon. I promise, we won't be doing this again any time soon.

A Call to Arms

2008-12-27T22:16:00Z

... though not in the traditional sense.

I have thoroughly enjoyed creating and maintaining this little blog. I get my programming fix and take care of that little writing bug, all at the same time. I've also enjoyed watching the rest of the family (specifically my parents) step up to the plate and take a crack at blogging. I've enjoyed these things so much so that I've decided to call for a contest.

I've struggled to come up with the right rules and the criteria for judgment, but here's the summary of what I've got so far:

Rules

No minimum length.
1000 word maximum.
Any format- prose, poetry, or anything else you can think of.
Subject matter is entirely open- family stories, personal life and experiences, research projects, journalism or reporting, math, anything goes.
Multiple submissions is great

Judging

Peer judged. Those that participate judge all pieces according to the established criteria (and their own opinions)
When the submissions are in, you'll get a judges form- just read each submission and fill out the form

Criteria

Creativity. Of course. This includes the format- poetry could be a more creative form. Content is, of course, the major contributor.
Style. By style, I mean voice, awareness of audience, and choice of language.
Appeal. Try and make it interesting. You'll get marked down for putting people to sleep.
Personal opinion. After all, the judges are human!

This is a draft- I'm looking for feedback here. As soon as the groundwork is set, we can make the call for submissions and start having real fun. Please post comments or email me with your ideas and criticisms!

The Void

2008-12-22T21:17:00Z

Every now and again, especially as I lay my head down and attempt to put myself to sleep, I will listen to my favorite NPR podcasts. Topping my list of favorites is, "Wait, wait, don't tell me!". A close second is, "Car Talk". A not-so-distant third is, "This American Life". I'm not an avid listener of the latter, but there are some precious gems among the archives.

Last night was one of those nights- I was trying hard to get over a cold, had spent the entire day in bed, and was having a hard time sleeping. I had exhausted my thin supply of other NPR bedtime favorites, and "This American Life" had published an episode the week prior that caught my eye- "20 Acts in 60 Minutes". They departed from their normal format of publishing a few stories on 2 or 3 themes, choosing instead to publish as many shorts as humanly possible. I enjoyed it- it was (to me) a very successful experiment.

One story in particular caught my attention. It was regarding a man who recognized a woman, could remember emotions and the importance of the prior relationship to her, but could not place the face, the name, or any of the circumstances. He spoke of the void into which memories had fallen and continue to fall.

This strikes a chord with me. I dare say that I am much younger than the man in the story- I stand still shy of 30 years- but the faculties of memory left to me are slim at best, growing leaner by the day.

Last week, my father put out a plea to us, his children, to come up with stories about Christmas' past. I was excited to participate, to give new life to those old memories, but I couldn't remember.

Anything.

At all.

Do you understand how disturbing that is? Those memories were and are important to me, but seem just beyond my reach. I struggle so hard and get no farther than fleeting and disjointed images that must somehow be associated with those events, but whose strings are cut.

I have never put these thoughts to paper before and I have shared them with precious few people. It is difficult to explain both the challenge this presents as well as the empty pit it leaves in my stomach to consider. For years, I considered my memory on par with the populous, yet for at least the past decade, my memories have been fleeing far faster than any other's I know of, including those of advanced age (and no, Mom and Dad, you don't count as "advanced" yet).

I used to have memories rich with color, smells, and emotions, yet when I look back now, I find a stale and sparse landscape with little but broken images. When my wife speaks to me of the first steps of our daughter (our first child, only 5 years old), or compares the antics of our current younger set, I struggle to find and latch onto the memories they touch. Sometimes, my wife will push and try to help me remember, only for us both to find that some memories are full and truly gone. Disappeared. Vanished into... some kind of Void.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised at the loss of long-term memory, as I have struggled nearly my entire life with a poor short-term memory. Just a few days ago, a conversation with a friend at work was interrupted. He grabbed me a few minutes later and mentioned that he had thought "it" was a good idea. I honestly had no idea what "it" was all about. He proceeded to explain that I had made a suggestion that he had though wise. Even after the ensuing (and interesting) chat, I had absolutely no recollection of the idea. None whatsoever.

I would assume that most of you have experienced walking into a room, knowing you had a purpose, only to find yourself meandering around, lost as to why you are there? This happens to me 5 to 10 times per day. At least 5- I've counted that high before, but always forget what I'm counting things for before noon.

You may think I exaggerate, but I assure you that I do not. If anything, the truth is under-represented due to the simple fact that I do not remember it all. This obviously skews the results, but if 6 hours counts as a representative sample (and it is all that I have), the numbers I've cited must be low.

Fortunately, I do have compensatory methods. I have a toolbox full of ways to prevent forgetting important things. Over the past decade or so, I have tried desperately to hypothesize exactly what is wrong and how to fix it. As a programmer, I gain some comfort and success in treating my brain like a computer with some flawed parts. Here are some of my findings, and some of my tools:

Finding: 3-5 minutes is the upper bound for the majority of all of my thoughts. If I do not take action to preserve them, they will be completely gone and irrecoverable by the end of that period of time. Generally speaking, it takes ~30 seconds for a stray memory to disappear forever.
Tool: I can encourage retention of a memory through sufficient associations- meaning if I can tie a thought or idea to enough of the surrounding circumstances, images, etc., there is a much higher chance I will remember it in 3 minutes
Tool: I can encourage retention further by repetition. It raises the upper bound to something on the order of an hour or two, but the memory is doomed unless I take further action.
Finding: The "Void" is real. I have tried so hard as to the point of tears to recover some vital thoughts, ideas, or memories. I have tried for literally hours to salvage some things. The end result of such extended effort has always been failure.
Finding: Some memories, especially those that make it to what people like to call long-term storage, seem to persist. It appears that the *references* to those memories are damaged or removed, making it nearly impossible to bring those memories back.
Finding: It's getting worse. While I don't remember much, I do remember being able to do some things that are currently impossible to me. I remember being able to retrace my steps, mentally, to recover some lost thought. This process no longer works.

It is depressing to write of this- and depression, for me, is extraordinarily rare. Solemnity is equally rare (just ask my family). My natural disposition seems contrary to both. In fact, if my memory serves me well, my transition to an almost entirely depression-free disposition matches quite well with the degradation of my memory. In fact, I don't think it would be too much of a stretch to call them related.

If you can imagine, it is very difficult to remain depressed when you can't remember what got you there. This may also be one of the many items of saving grace for those I call friends- offenses pass either unnoticed or soon forgotten (though I can't remember being offended by any of my friends... I suppose that may represent "case and point").

As it boils down, I have learned to live life as it comes. Fortunately for my family and myself, we have been extraordinarily blessed as to make that possible.

Youthful Exuberance (or Stupidity, You Decide)

2008-12-19T22:42:00Z

We'll start with a bit of catch-up, rapid-fire-style:

Running sucked. Knees hurt.
Broke back. Back hurt
Started physical therapy. Knees and back still hurt.
Ran. Hurt more.
Doc said stop running. Stopped.
Knees stopped hurting, back got excruciatingly painful.
Started running again. Back got better, knees got worse.

In case you are wondering, I've been sticking to the letter of the Doctor's orders, running when he tells me to, resting, icing, heating, electrocuting, stretching, the works. I've been a good boy for a change! Let's continue.

Therapist says, "Get a cortisone shot".
Finally get around to going to the Doc, got cortisone shot.
Run some more. Knees are better.
Back still hurts, but not as bad.
Yay.

That brings us up to speed in preparation for today's [mis]adventure.

Fun in the Sun

I wish. We've had snow coming down almost daily since the beginning of the week (it is Friday today, in case you were wondering). I can't really afford to take any time off the training schedule, as it's the only thing holding the pain in my back to a sane level (on a scale from 0-10, 0=no pain, 10=passing out, I sit at a 3 consistently when working out. Shoots up to 8 or higher when I'm not. Yes, I've nearly blacked out from it before, but don't tell my wife :) ). I ran on Monday, just after the first snow of the week. We had about 2 inches at the house, about 4 on the mountain a few hundred feet up from us.

Set the Scene

I am not a typical road rat when I'm running. We live on the foothills of some beautify (albeit desertish) mountains, slashed by ATV, game, and foot trails. When I run, I run trails. The experience is so much the better for the scenery and the mountains offers an unparalleled challenge.

I have several "favorite" routes- ranging from 2 to 13 miles. I've been running a 4 mile route for the past month as I've struggled to let the knees and back heal. This route takes me about a mile into the mountains then cuts North for another mile until it butts up against the fence line of Camp Williams (an Army facility). The terrain is pretty rough- field and wild hills with a swath of a path cut by farmers and base personnel. Apparently, it gets a fair bit of snow too.

Monday's run was great- the weather was clear, the snow on the ground was crispy and offered fair traction, and it wasn't too cold. Things started to change on Wednesday, though I was still able to get a good run in without too much of a weather impact.

Then there was today.

At Least I Had My iPhone

I left the house and headed for the mountains with broken clouds and a weather report calling for a "chance" of snow". We had some snow flakes floating on the breeze as I stepped out the door, but not nearly enough to detract me after my 20 minutes of stretching. It was cold (25, wind chill bringing it down to sub-twenties), but I had three layers. I was prepared!

When I hit the mountain (350 yards from the house), I noticed that the snow was getting deep. Looked to be about 6" on the ground, drifts upwards of a full foot. I tried to keep to where I knew the path would be, which actually proved to be less of a challenge than it may sound. I had tire tracks to follow for the first quarter-mile. After that, I was cutting my own path.

If you've ever trained by running in sand, you have an idea what it's like to run in the now. Take that and multiply that by 3 and you've scored the difficulty of running snow without the appropriate snowshoes. Add a 4% grade and difficult terrain... you should have the picture.

The weather held until I reached the base fence line. It's the two mile mark and my turnaround location and I had kept a decent time, regardless of the conditions. As I turned the corner and started heading for home, a large gray mass began gathering over the fence behind me, moving my direction. I started making good time as the wind picked up and pushed me down the hill toward home. Then the clouds began closing and the features of the distant landscape slowly began disappearing. Ever more quickly, closer artifacts began fading into a white mist until all that was left ere the footprints in front of me. Finally, those were gone.

It took about 5 minutes for things to go completely white. When the footprints disappeared, I knew there was some potential for serious trouble. The path was unmarked, I was at least a mile from home in an area only snowmobiles could access. I had less than a hundred feet of vision, closing at times to 10 or 15 feet. Although I had put on three layers, they consisted of two technical shirts and a fleece- not nearly enough to hunker down and weather it out.

Two options remained: I had my iPhone and my (hole-ridden) memory of the landscape. I'm not directionally challenged, but I am certainly not gifted, so I settled on a compromise:

I would use my (potentially) flawed memory of the landscape, plus a little feeling around with my feet for footprints (they might be covered, but they were still there) and see if I couldn't make it to the tire tracks leading to home.
If, after 10 minutes of running, I couldn't find the tracks OR lost the footprints at any time, I would whip out the trusty iPhone, pray the battery hasn't frozen to death, and use Google Maps and it's "Locate Me" feature to navigate my way home.

And no, I didn't stop running to figure this out. I kept going, feeling for footprints where I thought they should be.

After nearly exactly 8 minutes, I stumbled into soft powder of a tire-sized trench. I kept to the trench (which sent powder into my shoes straight away) until I broke out onto the roadway, which took me all the way home. As I rolled in the door, I checked my watch. I posted a better time than Wednesday, despite the rather poor conditions. Wow. And phew.

So, here's the post-mortem, the things I've learned from this experience:

Age makes you feel guilty about doing adventurous things that, not so long ago, would have been an adrenaline rush.
I'm still not old enough to make that stop me from doing it again.
Running actually is a pretty good way to keep warm in a snow storm.
It's also a very good way to get you more lost.
Two technical shirts and a fleece isn't enough to weather a small blizzard. Not by a long shot.
The 10 Essentials really are essentials. All right, so I've know that for a while. I've always broken my 10 down to the 3 that could make all 10 (can you figure out which three?), but sometimes, conditions make all 10 absolutely critical.
This cortisone shot seems to have done the trick.
Snow is cold. Snow + wind + clouds is colder.
...and so much more.

Enjoy the winter months. Be smart and don't do what I write about doing here. If you're a Metge, or related to one, expect things to go wrong in the worst possible way. That way, you will never be surprised when they do.

Accident? Well... not really

2008-10-19T04:32:00Z

Recently, I've had the pleasure of hitting the pavement in another way. It's been nearly 10 years since I've been able to run any significant distance; due to a combination of tendonitis (ITB), bursitis of knees and hips, and a combination of other less-than-pleasant indications that I'm not the indestructible 17-year-old I still occasionally think I am, I've been held to about 20 minute sessions of pavement pounding per day. Sadly, 20 minutes is neither enough to garner the high that makes long distances so attractive nor is it sufficient to satiate my masochistic nature.

Now before you get too depressed on my behalf, there is an extraordinary upshot to this story. Of late (and by this, I mean over the past three months), I've finally been able to push the envelope in a significant way. I've extended my range, as of Wednesday this week, to just shy of 13 miles. Now that's progress- from 3 miles (tops) to 13 miles!

Yes, I am pleased in the extreme with the progress. I've spent upwards of two hours running, enjoying the pseudo-bliss of runner's high for the first time in a decade. Alas, it wasn't meant to last.

I am getting old. I simply can't deny it any more. My metabolism has dramatically slowed- I can't get by on a 5000 calorie diet anymore. These days, I'm bound to a 3800 calorie diet. I currently weigh 15 pounds more than I did 15 years ago- and 10 of those pounds were packed on in the last year. I'm closer to thirty than to anything else... and getting still closer by the day. And, to top it all off, I simply don't heal as well or as quickly as I used to.

My recent stint with distance running is the perfect example. I had been running between 6 and 10 miles daily for about a month before biting the bullet and going for the half-marathon on Wednesday. I had been slowly ramping up the time and distance with each run, monitoring my knees and hips very carefully so as not to do irreparable damage. It was all leading up to the day that I could pass the 13 mile mark. At that point, I knew I was a significant step closer to the half iron-man I've been working toward.

The run started badly. I had been out on Monday, taken Tuesday off (intentionally, thinking of my Wednesday plans). I had stretched thoroughly (a necessity these days) and felt pretty good. 100 yards out the door, though, I felt a "pop" in my left hip joint and the (expected) accompanying pain. I've felt it before, many times. It's the kind of pain I can ignore and run through, but have to pay for later. My thought process at the time was simply:

"No worries. It'll hurt, but it'll heal. It's worth running through."

So I continued. I posted some great speeds going up the hills on the run (there is a several hundred foot climb in the first 4 miles of my run, all of it off-road). I came in within 20 seconds of my personal best at the 4 mile mark, made the turn for the wide loop, and started down the hill.

If you've had experience running before, you know the tricky part really isn't the uphills- it's the downhills. You have two choices: take it slow and suffer the time loss, or let gravity do the work for you. The latter seems preferable on paper, but when you're tumbling down a steep hillside, the first thing you notice is the beating your joints take. Consider again how my run began. My hip was not a happy joint.

Still, I was determined to pull of the distance I had set. Down the hills I went, for another 4 miles until I finally reached the road (yes, that's right, 8 miles of trail running). I knew I had 4.5 miles remaining on the intended route as I kicked the last dust from my shoes. And I also knew that the slight burning sensation the outer part of my right knee was a bad sign.

I could have cut it short. As the crow flies, it was about a mile from my location to home; on the roads, it was about a mile and a half. Chances are good that I would have made it home without instigating a serious flare-up of tendonitis in the knee. I've heard it said that insanity is doing the same thing twice and expecting different results. By this definition, I am quite insane.

By the time I rounded the last corner to make the half-mile ascent home (we live on a hill), I had practically no range of motion left in the leg. It was quite literally a dead limb dragging behind me. It must have looked strange- some guy running one legged with the other foot turned nearly 45 degrees out and straight as a board.

Now don't forget the hip. It was my right knee that locked up. I had no way to carry any weight on the leg, let alone soften the pounding on the left hip.

I could end my narration of events here, but I'll give you a picture of the aftermath of my (almost) half marathon. Here's the definitive list:

One completely frozen joint (right knee)
One excruciatingly painful hip (left)
A seriously inflamed and unhappy achilles heel (right ankle)
One idiotic grin of self-satisfaction for not only making it through the distance, but doing it with all the damage...

If you ever wonder what it's like to be a Metge, consult the list above. It's fairly well summarized.

Last note... I ended up taking an afternoon off of work and heading off to the doctor's. Something about practically crying from pain with every step didn't sit right with me. Interestingly enough, the visit was extraordinarily informative. The doctor (Doctor Christiensen, practicing in Saratoga Springs) is a phenomenal doctor. After describing the symptoms to him, his first response was to ask the history, identify a pattern of tendonitis, and look for an underlying cause. He's a sharp guy with a great memory- he pulled up an article describing what he suspected might be going on.

His suspicion was a hereditary condition- Ankylosing Spondylitis- that would lead to easy inflammation of the joints as well as a few of the other problems I've experienced over the past 10 years. Interestingly, he asked my about back pain. I told him that this was a very regular fact of life for me- sometimes, it is as much a notice of my existence as is my pulse. Even as I sit here typing, I can detect pain in my lower back. That, combined with limited flexibility in the lower back, led him to ask for a back x-ray and a blood test. We'll see exactly how that goes. It certainly would be nice to get answers to a decade-long question.

Bailouts for Dummies

2008-10-11T23:15:00Z

As we've watched the stock market tank over the past week, I've heard many, many comments from the population as a whole asking about or expressing very similar sentiments:

"Why are we bailing out those whose fault it is that I've just lost 30% of my retirement fund?"

"This financial crisis is too complicated and the bailout plan just doesn't make sense."

"Why are we focusing on bailing out the company when I'm the one struggling to pay my mortgage? Just give me the money. I'll put it to good use."

Well, folks, it's not that complicated. Sure, there are a lot of numbers, but the concept is painfully obvious and easy to grasp. For those of you struggling, here's a bit of help.

Acronyms (and words) they should have taught you in High School but never did

There's a pretty short list of words that get tossed around on the news these days that you might find a bit foreign. Economists are loving their chance to spout nonsense at the public while assuming it makes sense. There are just a few terms that you need to be familiar with for it all to make sense (and my apologies, for many of you, it will be a refresher course):

I've done you the favor of linking each item in that list to the respective Wikipedia article. They are very informative and, if you want to go deeper than the scope of this article, it's a good place to start. Here's a quick summary of what each of these items mean and why they are relevant (a.k.a. why you should pay attention):

First and foremost, consider the SEC. The acronym stands for "Securities and Exchange Commission". So... it's a commission (regulatory agency) that treats things called "Securities" and "Exchanges". Not a bad start, right? That brings us to "Securities" and a certain type of "Investment". "Securities" (you're loving the quotes, right?) is an investment vehicle- it's something that represents financial value. Go to the Wikipedia article if you want the dry definition. An "Investment" is something in which one can place money with the hope of a greater return. OK, even simpler than that- it's something you buy that is (hopefully) worth more than you paid for it.

The last two items are types of Securities (investment vehicles) and are particularly important right now. Mortgage-backed Securities (MBS) are a type of Asset-backed security. Both are really techy terms to describe something very simple- securitization. Unless you're masochistic in nature, don't bother clicking that link. I'll explain it for you.

Securitization is just a fancy way to describe taking a cash-flow producing asset and selling it to someone else. Before you start pulling your hair out, "asset" is just something of financial value. The computer you are reading this on is an asset. So is your car. Your house is a much bigger asset. And, interestingly enough, so is your mortgage.

Think about it for a minute. A loan (like the afore-mentioned mortgage) is valuable to someone. Really valuable. Have you done the math on how much interest the bank will earn on your house if you pay them exactly what they ask for the next 30 years? It's astronomical. A simple exercise: if you pay $1400 per month over the next 30 years, how much is that? $504,000. What's the price tag on your home? $250,000. Wow.

So your mortgage, car loan, or credit card debt are all assets... to someone else. Hey, if I were guaranteed to make $150,000 over the next 30 years, I'd be happy. If I could do that 1 million times over, I'd be rolling in it. And the banks and investors who footed the money for your house are. Really.

Which brings us to Mortgage- and Asset-backed securities. Banks don't exactly want to wait 30 years to get their $150,000 from you. And you aren't their only asset. You have great credit, but I haven't lent to just you. Let's face it. You'll pay your mortgage. The vast majority of people actually do. But the whole idea of a credit rating is to understand just how likely you are to skip town. And I, the bank, have lent to a few people that are, let us say, highly likely to skip town.

What if I were a bank and wanted to make some cash fast? I could sell your mortgage to someone else for cost + $80,000, for example. I'd still make my $80,000 and the investor would potentially make $70,000. Win-win, right? Hmm, getting rid of your safe loan would leave me with just the mortgages of those people who, well, might not actually pay up. Ah-HAH!. I'll sell a package of your mortgage plus a couple of less-attractive loans! I'll use your mortgage to stabilize the risk of the other, riskier investments and by so doing attract a buyer for the package. Brilliant!

This brilliant idea has been around for 70 years. Remember Fannie Mae? What about Freddie Mac? Fannie Mae was established in 1938 to buy Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Veterans Administration (VA) loans with the purpose of packaging them up (pooling them) and selling them as an investment vehicle. It's a pretty sweet idea- I could buy a piece of one of these pools and reap the benefits of a fixed return (between 5 and 7%, for example) with very low risk. Certainly better than the stock market these days. Guess what? This is exactly what a Mortgage-backed Security is! Not that hard, right?

Fun in the Sun... but where's my sunscreen?!

If you're sharp (or pay attention to the news), then a big problem with the above system is running through your head. There's a big assumption that makes this whole thing work- that of lending to people who are actually going to pay back their loans. The idea that some people might not do precisely that is hinted at above. And that's where we found our risk. So... what if I (the bank) lent to 100 people who are highly likely to give me my money (plus a lot) back? We're in great shape. If we throw just a small number (like 10) loans to people who are somewhat likely NOT to give me my money back? Well, the pot is soured a bit. What if I lent to people that were not only likely but almost absolutely unable to pay me my money back? Well... if I do that enough, the pot is not only sour, but simply impossible to swallow.

Welcome to 21st century America.

Again, I (the bank) am not really planning on keeping these loans- I'll turn around, package them as securities, and sell them to the highest bidder. If I were irresponsible (cut-throat, immoral, predatory), I could offer to lend money to several people who were highly likely to not pay me back, package them up with a few other loans that were sweeter, and sell them for a nice margin to another clueless investor. I've got my money, he's got the risk. It's not wrong if someone buys it, right?

Think about the past 5 years. If you were looking for a mortgage during that time, it was a veritable field day of options. You had your standard 30-year fixed percent, fixed-payment loan. But that wasn't it- there were these APR things- Adjustable Annual Percentage Rate. Generally, an APR loan would lock in a nice, low, percentage rate for a short term (5 years, for example), after which it would fluctuate to match yearly market values. We could talk details, but it boils down to one thing: how much you pay every month. If you have a low interest rate, you pay less. Higher means more.

Suppose I (the bank, again) wanted to really stick it to someone. I could offer them an APR-based mortgage at a very low introductory rate. For the first year, I could lock in mortgage payments several hundred (or more) dollars less than they would pay with anything else. I could carefully avoid the fact that this same mortgage will nearly double in monthly cost once that fixed period is over. I've got person on the hook to pay me a lot more money over the long haul. That's a pretty sweet package to sell, right? I'll package that in with my other mortgages and resell them to investors for a better margin. Who cares if the person in question can afford the payments a year from now? I'm off the hook.

This is sounding bad, right? On two levels- the poor person who can't afford to keep their house any longer, and the poor sap who is unwittingly getting stuck with the bill. Well, it gets worse.

Another layer off the onion

Banks are only required to have 10% lending capital. Again, don't start pulling your hair out. What this means is that for every $10 a bank loans to someone (anyone), they are only required to really have $1. Interesting rule, right? Well, brushing aside the apparent idiocy (and it really isn't stupid, it does work), think about the doors this opens for banks. With each dollar they make, they can invest ten more. Of course there are restrictions, but it is a very enabling rule. But it can be a problem too, in more ways than I'm sure you are thinking.

Think if a bank is holding a large number of MBS'. They sell a few here and there to garner the capital (cash) needed to continue to invest in more mortgages and other items that come across their plate. They only need to sell a small number of these to gain the right to loan more. What if, however, there were no buyers for said MBS'? If they are, in any way, a primary source of capital for my organization, I have no choice but to stop lending. Does any of this start to ring a bell? Something about frozen credit markets? Perhaps something you heard on the news recently?

There is a lot more to the problem, but you get a glimpse of the idea. Now what exactly does this mean to you?

Where's my money?

There are a couple of very obvious points that I can't help but make here. First and foremost- what happens if your bank really fails? And I mean that the bank just ceases to exist, not being bought out by another bank or organization, not supported by the government. Where does your money go?

Think again about that interesting 10% rule. Do you think that if we all went down to the bank, closed our accounts, and asked for our money back that it would actually be there? Think again. They only have 10% (and potentially far less) of what the statement says they are keeping for you. The remainder is amortized (ooh, big word alert) over the years remaining in all the bank's outstanding investments. Yes, start pulling your hair out. OK, wait, I'll explain it.

Remember what an investment is? It's something we buy with the hope that it's worth more than we're paying for it. The value of that investment is more often tied to a time- like a mortgage, which is spread over 30 years. If our banks were exclusively backed by mortgages, it would mean that (best case) they have 10% of everything they say they own in actual dollars that they can pay you. The rest will be paid back in 30 years, when all those mortgages are fully satisfied.

"Woah!", you say. "That's not what the money in my checking account is for!". Well... it works to your benefit. Remember how much the bank stands to earn on that mortgage? That's how they can pay you your monthly dividend on the balance in your checking account. That's also how they can manage to offer that account to you without cost. They want your money so that they can continue to invest more. You don't stand to earn nearly as much, granted, but you do get something out of it.

So you don't want your bank to fail. Not for the next 30 years, at least. That's one big bonus to a bailout of banks. But that's really just the surface of the thing.

Origami for the Business

Let's talk about the buzz-phrase of the week: Commercial Paper. This is, essentially, a business line of credit to pay things like salaries or other operating expenses that has to be paid back in less than 9 months. Very dry. Well, thousands of businesses operate on this type of credit. Especially a business that does not have a fixed, month-to-month earning potential.

I bet you've recently heard a bit about commercial paper. Why? Because there's not a whole lot of it left. One problem with commercial paper is that it is entirely unsecured. There's not an asset (remember what that is?) to back it. If someone doesn't pay up, you can't just walk in and confiscate their employees. It doesn't work that way.

This isn't such a bad thing, if your company has great credit and the banks have the money to lend. What happens, however, when the money dries up? Commercial paper is the first to go. What does that mean to you? Just pray your company doesn't pay your salary with commercial paper. And pray that they don't do business with one that does. And pray that those they do business with don't either. It's the gas price syndrome. Raise the cost of fuel and everything else goes up with it- the cost to get eggs to the grocery store rises, so the cost of the eggs must go up to compensate. One key supplier operating on commercial paper is enough to start the cycle in businesses.

So the end result for the lucky few whose employers do not operate on commercial paper is that the pain is delayed a few months. It still hits. Profit margins are driven down, employers begin cutting back, looking at layoffs, not offering bonuses, and cutting pay. Who pays in the long run? You. And me.

Saving semi-grace

So where do we go from here? Take a look at the past 2 weeks and you'll get a picture. Stock prices tank because no one wants anything to do with a failing financial market. And when the banks fail, the companies go down with them. So no one wants anything to do with the business market.

Options? Well, banks need the cash to continue to operate. We need to find a way to feed that cash to them. Welcome, $700 billion! It puts a sour taste in our mouth, but we have to find a way to free up the credit markets. And the only real way to do that is to give the banks the $1 they need to lend $10.

The whole point of this (lengthy) post is bring some sanity to a sadly lacking report. I respect the journalism field and the journalists in it, but they have been found severely wanting over the past two weeks. Let's be clear. This is not a bailout plan. This is a rescue plan. Why do we need it? So that you and I can keep our job and keep receiving a paycheck. Without some action, we will lose both.

Yes, I believe firmly that the predatory lending practices should be prosecuted. It was criminal in both action and intent. I feel very strongly that you and I should not have to pay for the crimes of others. This is the primary reason for this rescue package. If only our President and Mr. Bernanke were a bit more articulate in their presentation, we might have avoided one of the most massive dips in the market since the great depression.

Still, I do place much of the blame on Congress. We would have taken a hit, regardless, but without their selfish pandering to the panic of some of their constituents, we would have doubtless been better off. As it stands, we've pushed the world into the most widespread recession in its entire known history.

As a closing note, many of you must be angry, or at least wondering, why our government stood by for so long as this crisis culminated. I would invite you to consider what would have happened it our President or any political figure with clout had stood and stated that our system would collapse. It's all about investor confidence- if you don't believe your stock is going to be worth anything tomorrow, you'll sell it today. Instead, a plan to curb the crisis was offered in the same breath. That much I do respect, even if that plan was incomplete and given the worst spin in the history of public relations.

Lay Down the Law

2008-09-07T23:04:00Z

Copyright law is not my specialty (and I thank my lucky stars every single day) nor have I ever had much care for it. Until now. If old ladies aren't safe from the intricacies of intellectual property laws, when we can do such a thing as copyright ideas, I think I can make a case.

The Metge web presence is right here!!! It's been here for years. What's this nonsense about Metge Family Life created by this guy Mark Metge. So he's my father. What makes him think he can lay claim to the whole of the Metge family anyway?

I personally think it's time to bust out the lawyers and throw this down in court. I'll be drafting a cease-and-desist with legal council ASAP. Dad, you can expect it in short order.

Until then, enjoy his blog. I promise, it's time is limited.

Blowout(s)

2008-07-02T15:33:00Z

Last week we had a wonder opportunity to take a few days of vacation and visit family down in New Mexico. Of course I couldn't pass up the opportunity to bike out-of-state, so into the back of the van the bicycle went with clothes, shoes, and other vacationing items stacked around it.

After the (brutally) long, 14 hour drive down to Las Cruces, I could think of nothing better than to stretch the legs and head out exploring the new terrain. We had arrived Saturday morning, it was crystal clear outside and just starting to get warm. A perfect day!

I didn't ride far that day- about 25 miles, mostly trying to find some decent climbs (of which there were few...), but it was exceptionally pleasant. Toward the end of the ride, however...

Ha. You thought I was going to blow a tire now, didn't you. Well, I didn't. It was just getting a bit warm by the time I rolled back up to the home of my wife's brother's family. After driving all night, it felt good to get out. Even better after I got a bit of sleep later that day.

Sunday, my brother-in-law, Jesse, was kind enough to find a couple of guys in the neighborhood that were roadies. He asked them if they wouldn't mind me tagging along on a ride with them, to which they seemed enthusiastic, and we set a date to get out early Tuesday morning. Monday rolled by (we had a lot of fun with the family the entire day) and at 6:00AM Tuesday, I grabbed my bike, jumped into the saddle and Jesse drove ahead, showing me where we were supposed to meet. When we arrived, however, we saw neither hide nor hair of those I was to bike with. Jesse drove around a bit trying to find any sign of bikers while I waited in case we were early. After a few minutes, we decided to jump in the car and head up the route we had settled on to see if we could catch them. As Jesse drove off, I accelerated, intending on keeping up with the van. Unfortunately, it just wasn't in the cards.

POP

Can you guess what that was? :) Yes, indeed, my rear tire had blown out. Not just a simple blown tire though- the sidewall of the tire tore clean through, a full half-inch gash in an explosive release. 125PSI, for those who may not be aware, goes off like a pipe bomb. It was loud enough to make Jesse (in a van, about 100 yards ahead) stop and wonder what had happened. As for me, well, I dismounted (quickly) as soon as I felt my tire give out. Riding on rim is not exactly a good idea...

Anyway, here's a picture for you all of the damage done to the tire. I had put about 1000 miles on the set of tires, so it was definitely time to retire them. I guess I should have thought about that before... :)

Epilogue

As much as I hate to admit it, I didn't run down to the store and grab a new tube that same day. We headed home on Wednesday and it wasn't until Friday that I finally got around to trying to repair the tire. And, even more hesitantly, I'll admit that I didn't notice the gaping hole in my sidewall straight away... I patched the tube where I found the (massive) hole, ran my finger along the inside of the tire to find any undesirable objects, then threw it back on, pumped it up, and put it back on the bike. Needless to say, that didn't last long. As soon as my rear hit the saddle, I heard the pleasant sound of a cannon going off yet again.

I suppose it wouldn't be that bad if I hadn't gone through 3 tires... yes, a full 3... before I finally looked at the sidewall and found the gaping hole. Well... I've never been known for my smarts. For good reason!

So the tally stands thus: 4 destroyed tubes, 1 destroyed tire, 3 days of lost time, my old Lemond is now missing a tire, as well as 2 tubes (I didn't have enough spares to counter my idiocy). All in the name of the ride. Some day, I will learn. Some day.

Entourage + SyncServices = Sleepless Nights

2008-06-05T17:59:00Z

The equation is simple. From the google search results for the two terms "Entourage" and "Sync Services", you get the feeling I'm not alone in this. For those of you who have not suffered at the hands of Entourage, a brief explanation: Microsoft Entourage is a trimmed-down version of Outlook that runs natively on Mac OS X. And it stinks. But then again, so does Outlook (can anyone say, "bloatware"?).

Here's a review of the symptoms that led up to this morning's intervention:

My computer started to become very unresponsive
The poor CPU/system fans started running incessantly (I have a MacBook)
Activity Monitor showed a few processes going nuts:
- Microsoft Sync Services
- SyncServer
- mds

There was a bit more to it, but that's the summary. Now, my MacBook is the backbone of my work. Everything I do, I do on that little puppy. It's a fantastic laptop. However, with these things bringing it to its knees, I simply couldn't get much done. Not to mention the fact that my battery would last a whopping 1 hour as compared to the original 4. Something had to be done.

So, I started taking things apart. Using Syncrospector, I pinned down that it was indeed the ical sync between entourage and iCal that was killing things. Address book was fine. I also took a look at the sync truth database (~/Library/Application Support/SyncServices/Local/data.syncdb). As per this wonderful post, I did a quick vacuum, bringing my 600M database down to 150M. Unfortunately, this did nothing to help.

Next step was to delete everything in the SyncServices/Local folder. Just remember, if you're trying the same thing, that you have to 'killall SyncServer' and exit iCal/Entourage/Address Book. Unfortunately, as soon as I kicked off SyncServer, things started going nuts again. Now we get into My Big Mistake (tm).

Thinking that the truth db might still be messed up somehow, I told Syncrospector to unregister Entourage 2008. Don't do this. Let me repeat: Don't do this!. The next time I tried to get Entourage to sync with anything, I got a nice little crash dialog, popping up every few seconds until I managed to tell it to knock it off. It took quite a while to figure out what went wrong. I had to run Microsoft's Sync Services daemon from the command line to get some readable output. Doing so finally let me know that the isync database schema had forgotten about "com.microsoft.entourage.notes.Note".

I shouldn't have found the forgetting part surprising... I had basically given SyncServer the concussion of a lifetime by deleting it's entire data store. So I spent the next twenty minutes trying to find the schema definition. I finally just created a new account on my MacBook, registered Entourage, and watched to see what changed, finally spotting the schema update under ~/Library/Sync Services/Schemas. A new bundle, called (surprisingly), "com.MicrosoftOfficeNotes.syncschema" was placed there. So the next logical step was to see how to get *my* account to accept this schema update.

I tried the obvious first- just dropping the bundle in the same location and recursively chown'ing the thing to my account. Of course, that didn't do anything for me. My next step is the first intelligent step- take a look at the Sync Services API for Cocoa. You can take a look here at the documentation, specifically the Creating a Sync Schema article. This finally led me to necessary function call for registering new schema, which I could use to register the missing schema bundle with Sync Services.

Now I really didn't feel like writing up a wrapper for a single call, but, again, if you are trying to follow this to repair your own system, you might want to. It's simpler to do so unless you happen to have ruby + rubycocoa already installed... Since I did, it was a fairly trivial script:


require 'osx/cocoa'

include OSX

ns_import :ISyncManager

ISyncManager.sharedManager.registerSchemaWithBundlePath("/Applications/Microsoft\ Office\ 2008/Office/Microsoft\ Sync\ Services.app/Contents/Resources/MicrosoftOfficeNotes.syncschema")

That was it. I fired up Entourage, kicked off Microsoft Sync Services, and I was back in business. Unfortunately, that meant I was back to dismal performance. So, I finally took a look at what in my calendar was giving SyncServices so much grief. Lo and behold, I had 3500 calendar events spread over the last 6 months. And 95% (literally) were duplicates. A half hour later, after sweating out deleting all dups by hand, I kicked off sync services again. Huzzah! It works! My iPhone now syncs in less than two minutes, (it was taking >20 min before), my iCal has my Entourage calendar events, and my battery life is almost back to normal!

If you've suffered the same, or need some help getting your Entourage back to it's (still sad) original state, feel free to drop me a comment. I'll do what I can to help.

Addendum

If you find that mds and SyncServer seem to spike at the same times, crack open your System Preferences, open "Spotlight", under the "Personal" heading, select the "Privacy" tab, and make sure you add:

~/Library/Application Support/SyncServices

I honestly have no clue *why* spotlight would be trying to index SyncServer's logs and databases, but there you are.

Race Week!

2008-05-25T20:16:00Z

This week it's the first race of the season (a little late for some of you, but I ended up being too sick to compete for my originally scheduled first race). Every Tuesday evening, RMR (Rocky Mountain Raceway) hosts a criterium for all category riders. They've even opened up their last flight to public. I'll be taking a ride with them this upcoming Tuesday. Being that I've never even ridden a criterium before, it could be a very interesting experience- I'll post pictures of the damage on Wednesday :) Seriously, I don't expect to take too much damage, but we'll see. They say that these criteriums can be pretty physical... See you on the other side!

Basement fun

2008-05-17T16:15:00Z

Our house has a wonderful, unfinished basement. There is a plethora of reasons why I simply love the fact that it is unfinished:

It doesn't matter if it gets dirty (well, Elise will eventually complain and make me clean it up
If you poke a hole in the wall, it doesn't really matter (unless it's an outside wall, of course)
Concrete walls. They're just plain awesome.
...

The list goes on and on. Of course, when *I* look at an unfinished basement, that's just the icing on the cake. When no drywall is hung, one can run as many cables as one likes, wherever and (just about) however one pleases. Thus, my Frankenstein is conceived...

Over the time that we've had this house, I've slowly gone about making certain technological ...upgrades. It began with bringing in a standard DSL internet connection with a static IP address, built to adding a *second* internet connection with static IP address and BGP routing, offering transparent redundancy and increasing connection speeds, and has continued from there with over 500 ft. of new CAT5 cable run throughout the house. A bit of blatant foreshadowing: a full *five* separate CAT5 cables were run into the basement...

The project reached a fever pitch over the past two weeks with the acquisition of a 42U server rack, one 4U file server chassis (24 bay, SATA-II, hotswap, awesome...), one 2U chassis for a virtual server host (via vmware, my xen is a bit rusty), and a 24 port managed gigabit switch (netgear, sadly).

I will note, at this juncture, that while I am jumping up in down with glee at this, I recognize that the vast majority of those reading this will, sadly, simply not appreciate this post. You have my condolences, of course. For those of you in that demographic, there are some pictures at the bottom so you can see at a glance what I will, undoubtably, spend several more paragraphs describing in the most painfully dull detail. For the rest of you, read on.

The "Project", as I've labeled it, has involved some pretty complicated planning and implementation has been anything but simple. Of course, if it were just throwing up a rack with a few rack-mount servers, it wouldn't have been a challenge. No, that would have been easy. Honestly, though, when have I ever chosen the *easy* route?

The Plan

A project of this magnitude, with the grand work for which it is destined (yet more blatant foreshadowing...), simply cannot be started without a detailed plan. After several days, several pages of notes, and a to-do list larger than any I've seen, the Plan started to come together. I used a very cool tool called "OmniFocus" to build it up. Boy am I grateful for good software. The Omni Group also publishes a few other fantastic tools.

I managed to throw together an ordered to-do list with associated dates (otherwise known as a Gantt chart...), develop a purchase list, research pricing, and lock down the intended result. A short list of the basic requirements:

42U rack, floor mount
Independent power circuit run from main
Power redundancy by both UPS (for 15 minutes) and standby generator
Switchable power control- meaning several 15 amp circuits, controllable by computer or network
At least one high capacity storage server (24+ bays, redundant power supplies, hot-swap SATA-II controller, etc.)
At least one 2U chassis to replace a desktop chassis for the primary domain name and secondary name server
Managed, 24+ port, gigabit switch
Two independent internet providers with separate lines and methods of communication (I chose a basic DSL line and a radio link for diversity)
BGP routing for both networks
There's more, but I'm sure you're bored by now

You can guess at the work (and budget) involved in a project like this. Speaking of budget...

The Budget

Recently, as you can read about in other posts, I put a fair bit of money into a very nice bike. There will be another post very soon regarding my intentions with that very fine ride, stay tuned! The only drawback (thus far) with ownership has been the smoking hole in the proverbial family pocket from the purchase. What does this mean? It means I had basically no money to accomplish The Plan. Not to worry! Not for naught did my father and I enjoy MacGyver! Throughout the years, making something out of nothing has become a talent.

There were several pieces that would undoubtably cost money. The real question was how much. I planned about $150 for the 42U rack (a steal, for a four post), the same for the 2U chassis, and $350 for the file server. As for the switch, I had originally hoped to spend <$200, but found that if I wanted a *decent* one, I'd have to up it to about $300. Total so far: $800. </p> <p> Fortunately, <a href='http://www.mozy.com'>Mozy</a>, the company I work for, is in the data protection business. We were just replacing a few of our high capacity server chassis, so I made an offer on one. I got it for a steal- all the power supplies, the SATA-II backplane, the drive bays, everything for my budgeted $350. Thanks Mozy! </p> <p> <a href="http://www.newegg.com">NewEgg</a> was kind enough to supply the rest for me. I split this across three months- purchasing the server from Mozy first, and just recently the rack, 2U chassis, and switch. I can't tell you how exciting it was to see the boxes in the living room when I got home from work...

Now there are still some pieces missing here- some unfortunately pricy pieces. The most key of them is the switchable power distribution unit (PDU). The idea behind this little piece of magic is to allow an administrator to remotely power cycle a machine or piece of hardware. There is a good reason why this is expensive- it's essentially an embedded computing device inside a power switch. Generally, they run about $600 and up. Needless to say, I'm not spending that much on a power strip. Period. So...

The Construction

We build it. There is an astonishingly simple electronic component called a "Relay". A relay is essentially a magnetically controlled switch. Run some DC voltage through it and the switch is turned on (or off, depending on the model). Cut the voltage out and the switch toggles again. This is the building block for a remotely controlled power distribution unit. Once you have a few of these, you have some options:

The Dumb PDU

There are two pins in a serial port that carry a (supposedly) consistent voltage: the DTR and RTS pins. They are generally used to indicate the state of the device for communication- DTR indicating that transmission is pending (more or less), and RTS indicating a ready to receive state. The simplest PDU in the world disregards these finely tuned purposes and employs these two pins as simple drivers for the relays. What I mean is this: turn the DTR/RTS pins up and your relay (if connected properly), becomes either active or inactive (your choice by design). Voila! You have a very stupid remotely switchable PDU!

The Smart PDU

There is a distinct drawback to the above approach- you can only control two circuits from a single RS-232 serial port. Most computers (including mine) only provide a single serial port, if any at all. I had a flaky DSL modem, a flaky wireless router, two servers and a switch, at a minimum, to control. If my math is right (generally questionable at best), that's five separate circuits. Problem? Not really. We just need to use the *rest* of that fine serial port.

There are more than a few ways that this can be done- you can buy the ICs, etch some boards, and produce a nice serial relay controller. Cost: somewhere around $50, from RadioShack estimates. The much faster, simpler, and reliable alternative is this: Serial Port Relay Board from Carl's Electronics

Let me tell you, it was a life saver. a $65 price tag gives control of 8 independent circuits, 15 amps each. I purchase and had this shipped to the house. Once received, the only piece left was a bit of code to control it. It uses an extraordinarily simply protocol (thank heavens) that was equally simple to implement. Ruby being my language of choice, I grabbed a copy of the Ruby SerialPort Library and started hacking. About 20 minutes later, I had a simple class put together implementing and nicely abstracting the serial controller protocol. You can find the code here. There are a few main methods- power-on, power-off, power-cycle and status. Returns true/false for power events, a hash structure of all relays and their status with the status command. Extremely useful.

To power cycle any of the hardware, I simply need to call "power-cycle" on the relay in question from the controlling computer. Next steps: grab a mini-itx or smaller m/b, cpu, and the rest to build a little embedded controller. I can then slap the thing into its own rackable box!

The Result

As things stand right now, there is a single rack sitting in the basement of my house with two entirely independent (albeit slow) internet connections, entirely controllable via ssh. I've run 4 cat5 cables down to that basement (one for each internet provider, one to route back to the rest of the house, and one for future scalability). The entire house is wired with a gigabit backbone (useful for the Apple TV, but I don't think the Tivo. Overkill? Of course. Can it be done any other way?

The Ulterior Motive

I must be honest about my intentions. As a simple hobby or experiment, this is insane. Fortunately, I plan to recoup the investment in more than one way. One of the biggest driving reasons behind the construction of The Project is the poor infrastructure in the development where we live. Harvest Hills is a beautiful place, but frequent electricity outages, brown-outs, by-law stipulations against Comcast and other more capable server providers, and finally but most critically a back-yard, barely legal (if at all) shared dish/direct-tv connection called the communities cable, and perhaps more critically, another back-yard DIY project sharing 3 T1 (a T1 is 1.5Mbs up/down) for 450 homes. They call it high-speed internet, but you can do the math on what it really is.

So one of the ulterior motives is to significantly improve both bandwidth and uptime of the service involved. As it stands, each power outage results in a prolonged outage of both cable and internet. There isn't even a single UPS batter backup on either! Insanity. Total insanity.

Stay tuned- I'll post a few updates here as progress is made.